转载：新浪科技 作者：唐风 编辑：Zzyq　2010-07-16 08:31:50 Loading [投递]

MarketWatch今日撰文称，近期的一份研究报告揭示了智能手机市场的一个重要趋势，而这个趋势，许多消费者和投资者之前很可能已经模模糊糊地意识到了——黑莓正在死去。

听上去似乎有些危言耸听，而这又是千真万确，杀手便是苹果的iPhone和Google(GOOG)的Android操作系统，后者正在推动宏达电等一系列厂家的产品销售增长。

ChangeWave Research截至六月底(正好是iPhone 4上市的前夜)的调查发现，Research in Motion(RIMM)和其黑莓系列产品在美国智能手机市场上的领先地位已经是岌岌可危，只要苹果(AAPL)旗下iPhone的需求再有那么一波小小的增长，就将很快把RIM从他们的宝座上踢下来。

更加要命的是，调查还发现，用户对于黑莓产品的不满正在不断增长，而他们对苹果的产品却愈来愈热心，这就意味着黑莓的滑落轨迹短时间之内是很难改变的。

与三月间的上一次调查结果相比，苹果在智能手机市场上的份额又增长了一个百分点，达到了34%的史上最高水平。与此同时，RIM则在持续失血之中，从九十天之前的38%下滑到34%。换言之，只要RIM的这种势头持续下去，他们将很快失去自己的市场领先地位，毕竟他们现在已经从高高在上滑落到了与苹果难解难分的程度。

当然，值得指出的是，调查是发生在苹果最新的iPhone产品上市之前，因此自然也不可能体现所谓天线门事件的影响。苹果的最新产品存在严重的天线接收问题，以至于Consumer Reports杂志明确表态不推荐这一产品，而且还建议投资者在手机的特定部位贴上胶带来解决问题。苹果方面对此问题的反应非常傲慢自大，他们对消费者指手画脚，将责任推诿到信号显示软件身上，而且还在自己的论坛删除和Consumer Reports不利文章相关的链接，这些做法犹如火上浇油，给苹果造成了一场小小的公关危机。

不过，即便我们将近期的这些问题纳入考虑，也无法否认一个最基本的事实，即苹果的iPhone 4依然是一个炙手可热的存在，毕竟它在上市的最初三天就售出了170万部。归根结底，在苹果的iPhone周围，已经聚集起了一群忠心耿耿的消费者，因此天线门哪怕近期以来一直霸占着大小媒体的头条，但是它能够对苹果的品牌造成怎样程度的实质性损害，还是非常值得怀疑的。

RIM和他们的黑莓则是另外一番景象，愈来愈失去消费者的宠爱是他们不得不面对的一个长期问题。未来的消费者当中只有6%表示他们属意RIM的产品，为调查当中比例最低的人群。苹果则恰好相反，拥有最高的支持率，潜在买家中有超过半数都打算购置一部iPhone。苹果在这一项当中的成绩较之九十天前跃升了二十一个百分点之多。

基于Android的宏达电智能手机也是大赢家，有19%的未来买家中意他们的产品，而九十天前，这一比例为12%。

苹果和其iPhone何以会对RIM和黑莓造成如此强烈的冲击，这早已不是什么秘密了。ChangeWave的调查指出，在黑莓用户当中，只有 30%的人对自己的手机表示“非常满意”，而在苹果的用户当中，这一比例为73%，相当于前者的两倍有余。更加应该指出的是，RIM产品的满意度最近七次调查中一直在持续下滑，这一趋势从2008年秋季就已经开始了。诚然，苹果的天线门是在调查结束之后爆发的，但是假如苹果发现在消费者满意度方面，RIM 已经成了自己必须认真对待的竞争对手，苹果肯定会拿出办法来的。

简而言之，苹果的iPhone销售增长势头依然强劲，而且消费者对这种智能手机还是有着很高的满意度的，与此同时，Android手机也是来势汹汹，而在这种背景之下，愿意购买黑莓的人已经愈来愈少了，而且正在使用着黑莓的人们，对自己的手机其实也不怎么满意。

销售量的下滑和消费者的不满对于黑莓而言无疑是接连的两记重拳，也坐实了许多人认为它面对iPhone和Android的轮番冲击，注定将持续走下坡路的怀疑。

ChangeWave Research的调查结束于6月24日，超过4000名消费者接受了调查。

引用:

原帖由 洛克狼 于 2010-7-16 15:15 发表
posted by wap, platform: Nokia (E72)

国内的媒体又开始以自己的观点和立场代表全球使用用户了。bb和那些娱乐手机根本不一样

国内媒体哪有能力写这个，只是翻译而已



July 14, 2010, 11:18 a.m. EDT · Recommend (6) · Post:
Has the iPhone squashed the BlackBerry for good?
Commentary: Fewer buyers and lower satisfaction plague RIM

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By Jeff Reeves

ROCKVILLE, Md. (MarketWatch) -- A recent survey lends some hard proof to the trend many consumers and investors have already noticed -- the BlackBerry is dying.

Why? Because the iPhone is killing it -- and because the Google /quotes/comstock/15*!goog/quotes/nls/goog (GOOG 494.02, +2.68, +0.55%) Android operating system is driving strong sales for HTC and other manufacturers.

According to a survey conducted by ChangeWave Research at the end of June (just before the Apple iPhone 4 release), Research in Motion /quotes/comstock/15*!rimm/quotes/nls/rimm (RIMM 55.64, +0.81, +1.48%) and its Blackberry line of products is barely hanging on to its top spot in smart phone market share, and a wave of big demand for Apple Inc.'s /quotes/comstock/15*!aapl/quotes/nls/aapl (AAPL 251.45, -1.28, -0.51%) iPhone looks like it will soon knock RIM from its perch. Read the full report here.

Additionally, there is growing dissatisfaction among consumers with their BlackBerry devices and resounding enthusiasm for the iPhone -- indicating that BlackBerry's fall from grace isn't going to slow down anytime soon.
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Specifically, Apple gained another point in smart phone market share compared with an earlier ChangeWave survey in March -- up to an all-time high of 34%. Meanwhile RIM saw yet another decline, slumping to 34% from 38% just 90 days ago. That means that once-dominant BlackBerry smart phones have now fallen into a tie with iPhones, and are poised to fall from the No. 1 spot shortly if the downward trend for RIM continues.

Of course, it's worth noting that the survey was conducted before the recent dustup over the iPhone antenna problems -- including reports of "death grip" dropping calls and a poor review by Consumer Reports that included using duct tape to fix reception problems. Apple has thrown gasoline on this PR wildfire this week by arrogantly staying mum on the issue and even going so far as deleting negative comments and links to the Consumer Reports article from its forum pages.

But even when you take into account the recent bad press, it's hard to argue that the iPhone 4 is a hot commodity after moving 1.7 million units in its first three days. With an army of rabid gadget fanboys sticking up for their beloved Apple, it's unlikely the iPhone will see permanent damage to its popularity even if the antenna problems are making headlines right now.

As for Research in Motion and its BlackBerry, fading popularity has been a persistent problem. A mere 6% of future buyers have said they would pick up a RIM handset -- the lowest level of future buyers ever recorded by ChangeWave. That's in contrast to Apple, which is the clear leader among future buyers, with over half of those who plan to buy a new smart phone looking to pick up an iPhone handset. That's a tremendous 21-point leap over the previous ChangeWave survey, which was taken 90 days ago and before the iPhone 4 made its debut.

Android-powered HTC smart phones also saw big gains, up to 19% of future buyers compared with 12% three months ago.

It's no secret as to why the iPhone is trouncing RIM and the Blackberry. According to ChangeWave, just 30% of Blackberry users report they are "very satisfied" with their smart phone, less than half of the 73% reporting they are "very satisfied" with their iPhone. What's more, RIM satisfaction has been declining for seven consecutive surveys -- dating back to fall of 2008. Again, the recent antenna woes were revealed after this June survey, but Apple can still cede a lot of ground before it has to consider RIM a serious competitor when it comes to customer satisfaction.

In short, the iPhone continues to see big sales growth and high satisfaction with consumers as do smart phones running on the Android operating system, while fewer folks are buying BlackBerry devices -- and those that do are not nearly as happy with them.

This double whammy of slumping sales and poor customer satisfaction quantifies what many have guessed all along -- that the BlackBerry is steadily losing ground to the iPhone and Android-powered handsets.

The ChangeWave Research survey was completed June 24, and involved more than 4,000 consumers.

Jeff Reeves is editor of InvestorPlace. He does not own a position in any of the stocks named here. ChangeWave Research is the consumer polling and investment research branch of InvestorPlace.com.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story ... for-good-2010-07-14