The latest set of preliminary data has arrived from Japan. For the second week of January, all hardware typically drops off sharply. Software dropped off this week as well - only two games sold over 50,000 this week, compared to two games selling over 100,000 last week and Marioland a hair away from 100,000 as well.
1) Super Robot Taisen OG Saga: Masou Kishin II - Revelation of Evil God (PSP) - 70,000
2) Mario Kart 7 (3DS) - 59,000
3) Super Mario 3DLand (3DS) - 47,000
4) Monster Hunter Portable 3G (3DS) - 45,000
5) Inazuma Eleven Go Shine / Dark (3DS) - 25,000
6) Musou Orochi 2 (PS3) - 24,000
7) Final Fantasy XIII-2 (PS3) - 23,000
9) Just Dance Wii (Wii) - 20,000
9) Shinrei Camera: Tsuiteru Techou (3DS) - 20,000
10) Monster Hunter Portable 3 (PSP) - 16,000
12) Go Vacation (Wii) - 9,000
12) Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3 (PS3) - 9,000
14) Kirby's Return to Dreamland (Wii) - 8,000
14) Taiko no Tatsujin Wii: Ketteiban (Wii) - 8,000
15) Frontier Gate (PSP) - 7,000
In addition to the games above, Mario Kart Wii (Wii), Wii Sports Resort (Wii), Wii Party (Wii), Magician's Quest: Oshare na Mahou Tsukai (DS), and Inazuma Eleven Strikers 2012 Xtreme (Wii) should all end up in the final top twenty data as well.
The big question for this week is what level the new hardware will hold at this week. Vita and 3DS sold almost 300,000 units last week. Hardware sales will typically fall to 40-55% of the first week of January in the second week of January. Anything outside that range on the positive side is higher than expected demand, while anything outside that range on the negative side is lower than expected demand. All hardware last week increased in the first week of January besides PS2 and Vita, so don't be surprised if Vita ends up below 15,000 units this week. 3DS in contrast will likely still be over 100,000 units this week, which is a strong figure for just about any time of year in Japan (the US equivalent is like selling 250,000 - 300,000 units a week early in November when there is only a modest seasonal lift at play).
Barring some kind of unexpected collapse, 3DS should be able to top 5m in Japan in February, and sell through over 1m units in January to March 2012. Games should continually be announced for 3DS starting perhaps at Nintendo's financial briefing in a couple weeks, as it's been a long time since anything has sold 5m units in a year in Japan as 3DS will from February 26, 2011 to mid-February 2012. DS did sell 4.9m in the year to June 2008, but that was almost four years ago already. Wii, PS3, and PSP never got to even 4m units a year in Japan at any point, while DS once topped 8m units in a year.
Looking ahead, PSP, PS3, and Wii don't have much software coming in the short term that is 'big'. More importantly, Vita has nothing that looks relevant either for months, so the big question is where Vita bottoms out in early 2012 before PSP / PS3 / X360 games begin moving to Vita later in the year. Vita is in the classic chicken and egg scenario though at the moment - software can't sell well because the base is still tiny, and base is still tiny because the software isn't selling well (yet). Assuming Vita does somehow get to 2m+ by the end of 2012, it should be fine despite the slow start.
