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标题: [业评] 【IGN业评】History Says the 3DS is Doomed [打印本页]

作者: chenke 时间: 2011-7-30 08:17 标题: 【IGN业评】History Says the 3DS is Doomed

History Says the 3DS is Doomed
Nintendo's past sheds light on the fate of the 3DS.
July 29, 2011
User icon for OttselLevel 11
by Jack DeVries

With the announcement of the Nintendo 3DS getting a price drop, Nintendo hopes to turn around the lackluster sales of the handheld and get back on track. There's just one problem: That has never worked for Nintendo.

The fact is that Nintendo has never turned around the failure of a console or handheld by doing a price drop. What's more, every system they've had that had a price drop within six months turned out to be a commercial disappointment.

Now, it's easy to point to the Virtual Boy every time Nintendo sales falter, but it really is the classic example, and there are some unfortunate parallels between that system and the 3DS. Not to say that the 3DS is the colossal failure that the Virtual Boy ended up being, but there are some other similarities with the 3DS, and Nintendo's other consoles.

Just look at the other evidence. Back in the mid-90s, Nintendo was on top of the video game heap. They had effectively won the console wars with the Super Nintendo. However the launch of the Nintendo 64 was marred by lackluster sales. Whether it was due to more expensive games, or the competition's head start, the N64 did not perform as well as predicted, and Nintendo lost the lead. They tried multiple price drops, but it didn't save the system (which had some of the best games of the time).

- Brian Altano

The next generation didn't fare any better with the GameCube. Coming into the race in third place, Nintendo was never able to catch up, and lost more ground to the Xbox and the PlayStation 2.

Both of these systems got significant price drops within six months of their release. And both of these systems continued to underperform for their entire lifespan, despite great games, and additional price cuts.

By comparison, Nintendo's popular systems, the ones that succeeded, don't get price drops for years. It took the NES six years to get a discount. And the Wii went almost three before it got a cut. The Nintendo DS only got a price drop after Nintendo released the DS Lite over a year and a half later.

Is it a sure thing that the 3DS is going to continue to underperform? No, not necessarily. All of these situations are different, and the effort Nintendo is putting into incentivizing the system is unprecedented. But it's something to be wary of. History has shown that when consumers decide they don't want a system right out of the gate, it's really hard to ever change their mind.

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作者: kony 时间: 2011-7-30 08:31

其他机种有没有这么快就降价的。。。。。

作者: allensakura 时间: 2011-7-30 08:31

日本的銷量趨勢，3DS也是類似N64和GC

作者: 猫猫猫 时间: 2011-7-30 08:37

GC上好歹有一些不错的游戏,
3DS ??...我就操了.

作者: tdka 时间: 2011-7-30 08:42

gc好歹有gba补血，现在可是全线不利

作者: jlapton 时间: 2011-7-30 09:02

posted by wap, platform: Nokia (E71)

老任是不是隔几个主机就得低迷一个。。。
不过这回主要是太照顾第三方，而第三方又不给力吧

作者: tdka 时间: 2011-7-30 09:03

引用:

原帖由 jlapton 于 2011-7-30 09:02 发表
posted by wap, platform: Nokia (E71)

老任是不是隔几个主机就得低迷一个。。。
不过这回主要是太照顾第三方，而第三方又不给力吧

第三方已经很给力了，主要是机器有缺陷，任天堂开发力也不如以前

作者: lsn 时间: 2011-7-30 09:08

这个也可作为参考, 但不是一定, PS3发售后前两年的销量也是和现在的3DS一样, 要死不活的
后来作品多了, 改良型出来价格下去后就越活越滋润

3DS降价我觉得作用是有的, 但效果不会很大, 主要还是软件问题

作者: 3DS 时间: 2011-7-30 09:09

看发售表发售日未定的部分，第三方是很给力。看已发售游戏，那都是些什么东西？

作者: tdka 时间: 2011-7-30 09:22

雷顿，街霸，生化，doa，其实不比gba和ds差，主要是被3ds拖累了

作者: 一直都在胖 时间: 2011-7-30 09:43

posted by wap, platform: Nokia (E71)

被反人类的硬件拖累了。

作者: 君 时间: 2011-7-30 09:47

posted by wap, platform: Nokia

生于忧患死于安乐。

作者: jsllk 时间: 2011-7-30 10:01

历史总是惊人的相似

作者: 严俊 时间: 2011-7-30 10:08

貌似3ds是任地狱历史定价最高的？

作者: SRX-ATX 时间: 2011-7-30 10:08

我说你们哪个就不能好心的翻译一编再贴出来？

作者: allensakura 时间: 2011-7-30 10:17

引用:

原帖由 SRX-ATX 于 2011-7-30 10:08 发表
我说你们哪个就不能好心的翻译一编再贴出来？

簡而言之：3DS必死無疑
任天堂任何成功的主機都沒有在一年降價過
而3DS的降價幅度與速度甚至超越過去幾個失敗的前輩
然後更重要的是任天堂任何降價都沒有救起任何一台主機，反而是更呈敗像
當消費者決定不買任何一台主機，那要他回心轉意就很困難了

[ 本帖最后由 allensakura 于 2011-7-30 10:33 编辑 ]

作者: 三浦健太郎 时间: 2011-7-30 10:19

我来简单分析下任天堂.

一个小作坊厂长励精图治成为暴发户企业家. 然而该企业家有硬伤,在强大对手过来竞争之后(好比女足世界发展史上的XX玫瑰)就不行了,破产寸前踩到狗屎,独中两次福彩大奖,企业起死回生......然而不行就是不行,随着时间的推移,原形毕露.

作者: flies 时间: 2011-7-30 10:19

引用:

原帖由 lsn 于 2011-7-30 09:08 发表
这个也可作为参考, 但不是一定, PS3发售后前两年的销量也是和现在的3DS一样, 要死不活的
后来作品多了, 改良型出来价格下去后就越活越滋润

3DS降价我觉得作用是有的, 但效果不会很大, 主要还是软件问题

PS3发售后前两年的销量也是和现在的3DS一样，请教你有相关数据支持吗？

我所能得到的FAMI通的数据是，在日本PS3发售五个月累计80W+台，而3DS发售五个月有120W台，这是50%的差距，你可以算算周均销量的差距有多少。

当然拿PS3来比较3DS我觉得没有多少可比性。

作者: abrina 时间: 2011-7-30 10:25

历史总会重演啊

作者: waner 时间: 2011-7-30 11:58

降价是必需的~全区才是硬道理~

作者: lqdodo 时间: 2011-7-30 16:31

历史就是用来打破的

作者: 半熟英雄 时间: 2011-7-30 16:41

如果年末的马里奥3D大陆换成是一款2D新超马那样的类型，估计就可以海啸了。

作者: maidofhonor 时间: 2011-7-30 16:57

posted by wap, platform: iPad

这篇被全球亲痛仇快的愤恨X青热烈转载，可在IGN主站，此小编已被骂成猪头。

我看他时日无多；下标像钉棺材板一样，很不专业。

等到礼拜一，呵呵厚。

作者: Toyger 时间: 2011-7-30 18:10

还是有区别的，之前各种降价，都是后于竞争对手发布的主机，属于追赶者，这次3DS是在PSV发布前发卖的。

作者: 超越神的牛肉人 时间: 2011-7-30 18:34

引用:

原帖由 maidofhonor 于 2011-7-30 16:57 发表
posted by wap, platform: iPad

这篇被全球亲痛仇快的愤恨X青热烈转载，可在IGN主站，此小编已被骂成猪头。

我看他时日无多；下标像钉棺材板一样，很不专业。

等到礼拜一，呵呵厚。

任青都是原教旨主义者？

作者: gxy1301 时间: 2011-7-30 20:07

作者: 无印良品 时间: 2011-7-30 20:20

引用:

原帖由 kony 于 2011-7-30 08:31 发表
其他机种有没有这么快就降价的。。。。。

PS3 2006年11月发售，次年E3宣布降价100美元…………

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