[业评] WII再得不到第三方的大力支持，会失江山！！！

WII2009年财年100强：（单位M为百万）

数据更新到09财年结束，3月31日，为何4月后的不更新，因为很多游戏都还在销量增长中。

TOP:Just Dance (Wii) Release Date: 17th Nov 09         3.68M
Published by: Ubisoft


1.EA Sports Active (Wii) Release Date: 19th May 09        3.3M
Published by: EA Sports

2.Monster Hunter Tri (Wii) Release Date: 01st Aug 09  1.53M
Published by: Capcom


3.The Beatles: Rock Band (Wii) Release Date: 09th Sep 09  1.26M
Published by: MTV Games


4.Cabela's Big Game Hunter 2010 (Wii) Release Date: 29th Sep 09 1.11M
Published by: Activision


5.Guitar Hero 5 (Wii) Release Date: 01st Sep 09          1.09M
Published by: Activision

6.Toy Story Mania! (Wii) Release Date: 15th Sep 09      0.93M
Published by: Disney Interactive Studios

7.Disney Sing It: Pop Hits (Wii) Release Date: 09th Oct 09  0.92M
Published by: Disney Interactive Studios

8.Gold's Gym: Cardio Workout (Wii) Release Date: 25th Mar 09  0.86M
Published by: Ubisoft

9.Tiger Woods PGA Tour 10 (Wii) Release Date: 08th Jun 09     0.85M
Published by: EA Sports

10.FIFA Soccer 10 (Wii) Release Date: 20th Oct 09             0.82M
Published by: EA Sports

11.Rabbids Go Home (Wii) Release Date: 03rd Nov 09               0.78M
Published by: Ubisoft  

12.Hasbro Family Game Night 2 (Wii) Release Date: 27th Oct 09   0.78M
Published by: Electronic Arts

13.NERF: N-Strike Elite (Wii) Release Date: 26th Oct 09         0.76M
Published by: Electronic Arts

Guitar Hero: Metallica (Wii) Release Date: 29th Mar 09       0.73M
Published by: Activision

14. Madden NFL 10 (Wii) Release Date: 14th Aug 09               0.71M
Published by: EA Sports

15.LEGO Indiana Jones 2: The Adventure Continues (Wii) Release Date: 17th Nov 09  0.70M
Published by: LucasArts

16.The House of the Dead: Overkill (Wii) Release Date: 10th Feb 09    0.69M
Published by: Sega


17.F1 2009 (Wii) Release Date: 20th Nov 09  0.65M
Published by: Codemasters

18.Your Shape featuring Jenny McCarthy (Wii) Release Date: 24th Nov 09  0.66M
Published by: Ubisoft

19.Band Hero (Wii) Release Date: 03rd Nov 09 0.62M
Published by: Activision

20.Resident Evil: The Darkside Chronicles (Wii) Release Date: 17th Nov 09 0.62M
Published by: Capcom

21.Deal or No Deal (Wii) Release Date: 20th Jan 09  0.61M
Published by: Zoo Games

22.Deca Sports 2 (Wii) Release Date: 29th Sep 09    0.59M
Published by: Hudson Soft

23.EA Sports Active: More Workouts (Wii) Release Date: 17th Nov 09  0.55M
Published by: EA Sports

24.MadWorld (Wii) Release Date: 20th Mar 09   0.53
Published by: Sega

25.Sonic and the Black Knight (Wii) Release Date: 03rd Mar 09 0.53M
Published by: Sega


26.Metroid Prime: Trilogy (Wii) Release Date: 24th Aug 09  0.52M
Published by: Nintendo


27.Ghostbusters: The Video Game (Wii) Release Date: 16th Jun 09  0.49M
Published by: Atari

28.Indiana Jones and the Staff of Kings (Wii) Release Date: 09th Jun 09  0.49M
Published by: LucasArts

29.DJ Hero (Wii) Release Date: 27th Oct 09   0.47
Published by: Activision

30.WWE SmackDown vs. Raw 2010 (Wii) Release Date: 20th Oct 09  0.47M
Published by: THQ

31.James Cameron's Avatar: The Game (Wii) Release Date: 01st Dec 09  0.45M
Published by: Ubisoft

32.Disney Sing It! High School Musical 3: Senior Year (Wii) Release Date: 17th Feb 09 0.45M
Published by: Disney Interactive Studios


33.MySims Racing (Wii) Release Date: 08th Jun 09 0.43M
Published by: Electronic Arts

34.The Conduit (Wii) Release Date: 23rd Jun 09   0.42M
Published by: Sega

35.NASCAR Kart Racing (Wii) Release Date: 10th Feb 09  0.41M
Published by: EA Sports

36.Trivial Pursuit (Wii) Release Date: 10th Mar 09  0.41M
Published by: Electronic Arts

37.Deer Drive (Wii) Release Date: 20th Jan 09  0.38M
Published by: Mastiff

38.PES 2009: Pro Evolution Soccer (Wii) Release Date: 17th Mar 09 0.38M
Published by: Konami

39.Sonic & SEGA All-Stars Racing (Wii) Release Date: 23rd Feb 10  0.38M
Published by: Sega

40.Star Wars The Clone Wars: Republic Heroes (Wii) Release Date: 06th Oct 09 0.38M
Published by: LucasArts


41.Guitar Hero: Smash Hits (Wii) Release Date: 16th Jun 09  0.37M
Published by: Activision

42.Family Feud 2010 (Wii) Release Date: 29th Sep 09   0.37M
Published by: Ubisoft

43.Cars: Race-O-Rama (Wii) Release Date: 13th Oct 09 0.36M
Published by: THQ

44.Pro Evolution Soccer 2010 (Wii) Release Date: 20th Nov 09  0.35M
Published by: Konami

45.Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen (Wii) Release Date: 23rd Jun 09 0.34M
Published by: Activision


46.Food Network: Cook or Be Cooked (Wii) Release Date: 03rd Nov 09  0.32M
Published by: Namco Bandai


47.Up (Wii) Release Date: 26th May 09  0.33M
Published by: THQ


48.NHL 2K10 (Wii) Release Date: 15th Sep 09 0.32M
Published by: 2K Sports


49.Game Party 3 (Wii) Release Date: 06th Oct 09 0.32M
Published by: Warner Bros. Interactive

50.Tatsunoko vs. Capcom: Ultimate All-Stars (Wii) Release Date: 26th Jan 10  0.3M
Published by: Capcom

51.NBA 2K10 (Wii) Release Date: 09th Nov 09  0.3M
Published by: 2K Sports

52.Need for Speed: Nitro (Wii) Release Date: 02nd Nov 09 0.3M
Published by: Electronic Arts

53.G-Force (Wii) Release Date: 21st Jul 09   0.3M
Published by: Disney Interactive Studios

54.Boom Blox Bash Party (Wii) Release Date: 19th May 09  0.29M
Published by: Electronic Arts


55.Active Life: Extreme Challenge (Wii) Release Date: 11th Aug 09  0.28M
Published by: Namco Bandai


56.Virtua Tennis 2009 (Wii) Release Date: 09th Jun 09  0.27M
Published by: Sega


57.Press Your Luck 2010 Edition (Wii) Release Date: 27th Oct 09  0.27M

Published by: Ubisoft

58.Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian (Wii) Release Date: 05th May 09 0.27M
Published by: Majesco


59.DiRT 2 (Wii) Release Date: 08th Sep 09  0.27M
Published by: Codemasters

60.New Play Control! Pikmin 2 (Wii) Release Date: 12th Mar 09 0.26M
Published by: Nintendo


61.Naruto Shippuden: Clash of Ninja Revolution III (Wii) Release Date: 17th Nov 09  0.26M
Published by: Takara Tomy


62.LEGO Rock Band (Wii) Release Date: 27th Nov 09  0.26M
Published by: Warner Bros. Interactive

63.We Sing (Wii) Release Date: 13th Nov 09   0.26M
Published by: Nordic Games


64.Monotaro Dentetsu 2010: Sengoku Ishin no Hero Daishuugou! no Maki (Wii) Release Date: 26th Nov 09   0.26M
Published by: Hudson Soft


65.Mini Ninjas (Wii) Release Date: 08th Sep 09   0.26M
Published by: Eidos Interactive

66.Rock Band Country Track Pack (Wii) Release Date: 21st Jul 09  0.26M
Published by: MTV Games

67.Final Fantasy Crystal Chronicles: The Crystal Bearers (Wii) Release Date: 12th Nov 09  0.25M
Published by: Square Enix


68.Monster Hunter G (Wii) Release Date: 23rd Apr 09   0.25M
Published by: Capcom


69.Muramasa: The Demon Blade (Wii) Release Date: 09th Apr 09 0.26M
70.Published by: Ignition Entertainment


71.Red Steel 2 (Wii) Release Date: 23rd Mar 10 0.25M
Published by: Ubisoft

72.SpongeBob's Truth or Square (US sales) (Wii) Release Date: 26th Oct 09 0.25M
Published by: THQ

73.Jump Start Pet Rescue (Wii) Release Date: 08th Sep 09    0.25M
Published by: Knowledge Adventure
N/AN/ACritic ScoreN/AUser Score0.25mTotal Sales


74.Silent Hill: Shattered Memories (Wii) Release Date: 08th Dec 09  0.25M
Published by: Konami

75.Jump Start Pet Rescue (Wii) Release Date: 08th Sep 09      0.25M
Published by: Knowledge Adventure

76.SpongeBob's Truth or Square (US sales) (Wii) Release Date: 26th Oct 09 0.25M
Published by: THQ

77.World of Zoo (Wii) Release Date: 06th Nov 09        0.25M
Published by: THQ

78.Bakugan: Battle Brawlers (Wii) Release Date: 20th Oct 09 0.24
Published by: Activision

79.Gold's Gym: Cardio Workout (Others sales) (Wii) Release Date: 17th Jul 09 0.24
Published by: Ubisoft

80.Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Smash-Up (Wii) Release Date: 22nd Sep 09  0.24M
Published by: Ubisoft

81.SimAnimals (Wii) Release Date: 21st Jan 09   0.24M
Published by: Electronic Arts

82.Spore Hero (Wii) Release Date: 06th Oct 09  0.23M
Published by: Electronic Arts

83.Bass Pro Shops: The Strike (Wii) Release Date: 29th Sep 09  0.23M
Published by: XS Games

84.Ben 10 Alien Force: Vilgax Attacks (Wii) Release Date: 27th Oct 09 0.23M
Published by: D3 Publisher

85.Rapala: We Fish (Wii) Release Date: 22nd Sep 09  0.22M
Published by: Activision

86.Peppa Pig: The Game (Wii) Release Date: 04th Dec 09  0.22M
Published by: Pinnacle

87.Tales of Graces (Wii) Release Date: 10th Dec 09  0.22M
Published by: Namco Bandai


88.Dead Rising: Chop Till You Drop (Wii) Release Date: 24th Feb 09 0.22M
Published by: Capcom

89.Hooked! Again: Real Motion Fishing (Wii) Release Date: 03rd Nov 09  0.22M
Published by: Aksys Games

90.Karaoke Revolution (Wii) Release Date: 24th Nov 09  0.21M
Published by: Konami

91.Six Flags Fun Park (Wii) Release Date: 03rd Mar 09     0.21M
Published by: Ubisoft

92.Walk it Out! (Wii) Release Date: 12th Jan 10         0.21M
Published by: Konami

93.Marvel: Ultimate Alliance 2 (Wii) Release Date: 15th Sep 09  0.21M
Published by: Activision

94.Ashes Cricket 2009 (Wii) Release Date: 07th Aug 09   0.21M
Published by: Codemasters

95.Hannah Montana: The Movie (Wii) Release Date: 07th Apr 09 0.21M
Published by: Disney Interactive Studios

96.Big Family Games (Wii) Release Date: 22nd May 09   0.21M
Published by: THQ

97.Cabela's Outdoor Adventures (2009) (Wii) Release Date: 08th Sep 09  0.21M
Published by: Activision

98.Major League Baseball 2K9 (Wii) Release Date: 03rd Mar 09   0.21M
Published by: 2K Sports

99.Rec Room Games (Wii) Release Date: 01st Dec 09   0.20M
Published by: Destineer

100.Dreamworks Madagascar Kartz (Wii) Release Date: 27th Oct 09   0.20M
Published by: Activision


其中一些低于20W的焦点游戏：

Marvel Super Hero Squad (Wii) Release Date: 20th Oct 09   0.19 M
Published by: THQ

Final Fantasy Crystal Chronicles: Echoes of Time (Wii) Release Date: 29th Jan 09  0.18M
Published by: Square Enix

2010 FIFA World Cup South Africa (Wii) Release Date: 27th Apr 10    0.17M
Published by: EA Sports

X-Men Origins: Wolverine (Wii) Release Date: 01st May 09     0.17M
Published by: Activision

No More Heroes 2: Desperate Struggle (Wii) Release Date: 26th Jan 10  0.15M
Published by: Ubisoft

悠闲游体育统治WII第三方市场，其实第一方的游戏也多为悠闲，剩余部分是老任所有的看家大作都拿出来。

这说明这游戏机的年龄定位偏向低龄，第三方不是不想给力，做多点PG13的游戏，是做一个扑一个，谁能再给力。

多次的验证，第三方还不如下定决心，做多点E的游戏，起码成本低，回报相对高，亏的机会小，欧美厂商都是偏向悠闲体育类。

而日厂屡战屡败还坚持着，看中就是WII的装机量，可惜天公不作美，连SE这种大厂多次的尝试也没能得到回报。也许都应该醒醒

开发悠闲去，日子会好过点。

SONY与微软跨平台第三方过百万作品对比：
                                                                     PS3         360

1. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2                 8.28M      11.27M

Release Date: 10th Nov 09
Published by: Activision

2.Final Fantasy XIII                                  4.19M       1.47M

Release Date: 09th Mar 10
Published by: Square Enix

3.Assassin's Creed II                               3.73M       3.97M
Release Date: 17th Nov 09
Published by: Ubisoft

4.FIFA Soccer 10                                    3.38M       2.60M

Release Date: 20th Oct 09
Published by: EA Sports

5.Resident Evil 5                                    3.30M      2.78M

Release Date: 13th Mar 09
Published by: Capcom

6.Pro Evolution Soccer 2010                          2.19M      0.75M

Release Date: 03rd Nov 09
Published by: Konami

7.Need for Speed: Shift                             2.10M       1.47M

Release Date: 15th Sep 09
Published by: Electronic Arts

8.Madden NFL 10 (PS3)                               2.00M        2.53M

Release Date: 14th Aug 09
Published by: EA Sports

9.Batman: Arkham Asylum                           1.94M          1.49M

Release Date: 25th Aug 09
Published by: Eidos Interactive

10.Street Fighter IV                               1.70M          1.45M

Release Date: 20th Feb 09
Published by: Capcom

11.Battlefield: Bad Company 2                     1.69M          2.37M

Release Date: 02nd Mar 10
Published by: Electronic Arts

12.Tekken 6                                       1.63M        0.81M
Release Date: 27th Oct 09
Published by: Namco Bandai


13.Guitar Hero: World Tour                       1.55M       2.49M

Release Date: 26th Oct 08
Published by: Activision

14.UFC 2009 Undisputed                           1.53M         1.95M

Release Date: 19th May 09
Published by: THQ

15.Fight Night Round 4                         1.12M         1.19M

Release Date: 23rd Jun 09
Published by: EA Sports


16.Borderlands                                         0.71M          1.75M
Release Date: 20th Oct 09
Published by: 2K Games

17.Dragon Age: Origins                                   0.9M           1.66M
Release Date: 03rd Nov 09
Published by: Electronic Arts

18.Grand Theft Auto: Episodes from Liberty City       0.76M            1.47M
Release Date: 29th Oct 09
Published by: Rockstar Games

19.BioShock 2                                                0.7M              1.3M
Release Date: 09th Feb 10
Published by: 2K Games

20.Prototype                                                0.95              1.17
Release Date: 09th Jun 09
Published by: Activision

来看看第一方09年过百万游戏：
1.Wii Sports Resort (Wii) Release Date: 26th Jul 09      16.55M
Published by: Nintendo

2.Wii Fit Plus (Wii) Release Date: 01st Oct 09           13.22M
Published by: Nintendo

3.Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Winter Games (Wii) Release Date: 13th Oct 09      3.39M（ 因为包含了马里奥可以视为第一方）
Published by: Sega

4.Punch-Out!! (Wii) Release Date: 18th May 09            1.12M
Published by: Nintendo

这四款软件就够三千多万，但在未来高清体感的冲击下，SONY微软同类体感的会更多，谁来保证还能买的这么疯狂。

再看看微软SONY的第一方与独占：

1. Uncharted 2: Among Thieves (PS3)     338W   

2.Killzone 2 (PS3)       232W   

3.inFamous (PS3)       156W   

4.God of War Collection (PS3)     128W   

5.Ratchet & Clank Future: A Crack in Time (PS3)Release Date: 27th Oct 09   100W   

360

1.Left 4 Dead 2 (X360)       273W

2.Saints Row (X360)       204W

3.Halo 3: ODST (X360)       530W   

4.Halo Wars (X360)       186W   

5.Forza Motorsport 3 (X360)       278W

也许看起来跟老任差很大段距离，但别忘记第三方都主要为这两个平台做游戏。

而在总体软件销量统计上，三家都很接近。装机量WII是两家的总和，但软件销量却跟两家差不多。

这还是高清体感还没有出的情况下，高清阵容短期内虽然不可能在装机量赶超，但软件销量上不是无可能。
作为跨平台，就这20个分别平台的销量足以大胜WII的第三方。

两大阵型低清与高清，WII凭着自己的体感拥有傲人的装机量，SONY与微软合起来才与WII旗鼓相当的装机量，但合起来的软件量是WII第三方两倍。

这对于装机量堪称霸主的老任，其实就是一个危险信号。

老任的涵盖的内容太少，这与低龄+体感有着密切的关系，毕竟老任的手柄是完全按照体感来设计，摒弃了NGC的手柄。

但现在兵临城下，SONY微软纷纷为自己的阵容添加体感，丰富自己的涵盖量，也就是受众面。

打个比方，老任就是一个独立王国，靠着自己的兵将，打了一大片领土，SONY与微软各自只有老任的一半，但是他们与第三放达成了联盟。

虽然老任也向第三方招安，但是不同的待遇，在利益面前第三方对着老任的态度都是不温不热，但第三方在巨大的利益下正与高清阵容。

随着SONY与微软的装备（体感的加入）更加完善，与第三高度支持的支持，老任的城池步步为危。
也许有人说老任的CU就是体感玩家，既然老任能将LU改造为体感玩家，为何微软SONY就不能将体感玩家改造回来成为核心+体感玩家。

世界有很多玩家都是拥有WII+PS3，或者WII+360,而同时用于PS3+360的玩家并不多，毕竟两台机子的定位太接近。

但现在WII没有的部分依然没有，PS3与360将WII的体感变成自己拥有的部分，就在受众面上WII已经大打折扣。


老任凭借自己的市场洞察力，逆天而上，否决了得第三方者得天下。但别忘记打江山容易，守江山难，手中精兵良将不足，盟友诚意不足，岌岌可危。

[ 本帖最后由 tmangt 于 2010-7-31 18:37 编辑 ]

那就出新机好了，反正3DS已经推出，普及2000万台之后再出次世代家用机，微软和索尼如果跟进就接着亏，如果不跟进就没有竞争力，多简单的事

原来不是挖坟啊……
得第三方者得天下吗？放在sony身上很有用的一句话，放在任天堂身上……说不定有用吧

第几帖了？？

老任从NGC上得到了失败的教训：第三方都是婊子养的靠不住。

估计索尼这次也长教训了吧？

12年估计就能有次时代主机，你真当要再战10年啊，本世代也就是这样了

其实LZ是为SONY失去了江山鸣不平而已.

MH3和DQ10都拿下来了还能怎么样。

任天堂也在做收官了，E3展出些稳健品牌，基本上把该出的都出了。同时除了塞尔达全部都非本社作品，开发资源明显转移到了3DS。

任天堂是相信上一届的掌机胜利者就是下一届的家用机胜利者（虽然这规则灵验的次数不多）
投入资源在3DS上2年，确立3DS的不败地位之后，然后以3DS的协同功能作为独占卖点推销下一代家用机。

LZ这贴算不算皇帝不急那谁急？

明年估计就能公布Wii HD了，所以无所谓了

年底主推3DS，11年E3新主机放出消息，12年新主机E3实际演示，到时候估计3DS已经站稳脚跟了，12年年底推新主机。

下代主机估计不会叫Wii HD这么烂的名

除了体感，应该有其他的新意，比如加强掌机之间的互动之类，互联网肯定会加强这个不用想，收费问题估计老任也在探索。

至于对应3D，机能应该会内置，但是电视不普及的话恐怕不会大规模应用。

网络是各家厂商的未来，老任在网络上的探索也有很长一段时间了，应该会走自己的路。

索软都出体感，只是技术上强于老任的而已，别忘了主机再好也要有好游戏，索软能做出任那么好的体感游戏吗？
在这个基础上，老任怕个毛，索软的体感能卖个wii的零头就不错了

一直想知道楼主是那个铁杆索饭的马甲。。。

金吾中纳言就是比谁都靠得住啊